Pick your niche, your price and what you want to earn in launch week. You'll see your wishlist target, what you really keep from each sale once taxes, refunds and Steam's cut are gone, and how far you are from the goal.
16,310wishlists
to sell about 1,631 copies in launch week and keep $10,000.
Typical = 10% of wishlists buying in launch week, the median for games above $10. Conversion varies a lot between games, so we also show half and one and a half times that rate.
Your target
This tool focuses on launch week because Steam emails all your wishlisters when you release: it's when they turn into sales the fastest. But most games keep selling long after, and many things move the needle:
Every game is different, and these levers add up over its whole life. NextWishlist helps you plan them, not just the release.
Averages: your real split depends on your players' countries and refunds. Steam's cut drops to 25% after $10M and 20% after $50M.
Know every day if you're on track
NextWishlist follows your real wishlists, compares you with games in your niche, and adjusts your plan until launch day.
Sources: launch-week conversion and followers-to-wishlists ratios by genre from GameDiscoverCo; launch milestones from How To Market A Game. Estimates, not guarantees.
It depends on your price and on the revenue you want, not on a magic number. Divide your goal by what you keep per sale, then by the share of wishlists that buy in launch week. As a rough scale, around 10,000 wishlists is often cited for a solid indie launch, and breakouts usually start above 30,000.
Public data puts the median around 15% for games under $10 and around 10% above $10, but it varies up to ten times between games. That's why the calculator shows a cautious and a strong scenario next to the typical one.
No. Launch week matters because Steam emails all your wishlisters when you release, but a game keeps selling for years: seasonal sales, discounts, themed fests, being featured, updates, creators and word of mouth can each bring new waves of players. Plan for the whole life of your game, not just the release.
Steam takes 30% (25% after $10M, 20% after $50M), but only after taxes, refunds and regional prices. In practice most indie developers keep around half of their US list price, before any launch discount.